With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast takes another hit as Switch and game sales fall short of projections. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Switch console and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily due to unfavorable comparisons with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, for the second consecutive time. The company anticipates even lower Nintendo Switch hardware sales, reducing its projection by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million units to 150 million.

While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially predicted. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While surpassing the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time may be unlikely, the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales are within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, and software sales decreased by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. Within its first 11 weeks (since its October 17, 2024 release), it outperformed previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Crucially, for Nintendo's upcoming Switch 2 launch, active users are at an all-time high, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age.

Nintendo acknowledged the year-over-year decline in Switch unit sales but emphasized sustained consumer interest, with some holiday weeks exceeding sales from the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly anticipate the Switch 2's release. Nintendo confirmed upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release) and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025).

The Switch 2 was mentioned, with Nintendo reiterating its planned 2025 release and referencing the January 16th hardware reveal video. A Switch 2 Direct is planned for April 2nd to showcase further details, along with global hands-on events.